That’s what the Politico’s Ben Smith is calling them.
Right now I’d give 3-1 odds that our next Vice-President is from Virginia. And even that might be a pessimistic prediction. Both Marc Ambinder and Lynn Sweet, two of the most revered political prognosticators on the intertubes, put both Gov. Kaine and Sen. Webb in the ‘first tier’ of potential VP picks for Obama, and they’re not the first. That may not be news, but apparently Mark Warner still hasn’t been ruled out despite the fact that he’s currently a candidate for Senate.
Robert Novak reported recently that Warner was telling people close to him that he is being considered by Obama. This DailyKos diarist, who just attended a Warner fundraiser in California, seems to confirm it:
As they closed up the Q&A, the aid said something to the effect, “And no one wanted to know if he would take the VP slot? Well….” The aid then shouted verbatim, “Yes, he’d take it in a nanosecond!”
Gov. Warner smiled and clarified that “maybe not a nanosecond”, but that we might hear more about it in the future..
I’m not sure how much to read into this. For all we know Obama has Mark Warner on a list with 40 or 50 other names on it. Not to mention the position it would put Democrats in regarding the Senate seat he’s currently running for.
Since everyone else in the world seems to have an opinion on who Sen. Obama should pick as Vice-President, I may as well give my two cents as well. I think he should pick a woman. I think the rift between Obama supporters and Clinton supporters can be healed, but I cringe to think what would happen if Obama picks a white guy and John McCain picks a female runningmate.
And let’s say Obama picks Jim Webb, who may actually be the favorite right now. Webb is slightly vulnerable against women voters because of statements he made in the past regarding women in combat. George Allen hit him hard on the issue in ‘06 and Webb’s campaign had to work hard to win over female voters.
I’d be OK with Obama picking Hillary Clinton from the standpoint that it would be a very tough ticket to beat. But I don’t think any chemistry exists between the two. If that is the case it would mean she may have a largely symbolic role in an Obama administration, and would therefore be a distraction as much as anything else. She deserves better.
The three women who get mentioned the most are KS Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, AZ Gov. Janet Napolitano, and MO Sen. Claire McCaskill.
Napolitano would be a good choice from the standpoint that she could help in the southwest, even if McCain’s home state of Arizona is out of play. But she may not survive the vetting process due to the fact that she’s rumored to be a closeted lesbian. I don’t know or care if it’s true or not, but you just know it’s the type of thing the media would love to obsess over.
Claire McCaskill has received rave reviews as a surrogate for Barack Obama on the campaign trail. She’s only been in the Senate since 2006 however. That’s also the case with Jim Webb, but McCaskill doesn’t have Webb’s military background.
That leaves Sebelius as most people’s odds-on favorite to be the first woman Vice-President. She’s very popular in a very conservative state. Her last runningmate as Lt. Governor was once chairman of the Kansas GOP, which helps with Obama’s message of inclusiveness and rising above old partisan divides. Also her dad was once Governor of Ohio, and there’s nothing wrong with kissing up to those critical Buckeye State voters. The major knock on her seems to be that she may not be able to deliver her home state, but that hasn’t helped a candidate since Kennedy in 1960. Also people say her recent State of the Union response was a dud. I’ve seen it. It’s not great, but it’s not that bad.
One women I think Obama should consider is WA Sen. Patty Murray. As Secretary of the Senate Democratic Caucus she ranks no. 4 overall behind only Reid, Durbin, and Schumer. She ran for Senate back in 1992 to replace a Democratic Senator accused by multiple women of sexual harrassment. She’s very active in veteran’s issues. She supported Hillary for President. She also opposed the Iraq War from the beginning, which I think is a must for Obama.
Filed under: National Politics
Out of curiosity: If Mark Warner was picked as Veep, what would be the procedure to choose a Democratic nominee for the Senate race?
Tim, that’s a great question!
how about Maria Cantwell?
Joe Lieberman and Lloyd Bentsen ran for Senate and VP simultaneously. But this is an open seat. Very weird situation, I don’t know.
Good point Chris, Warner could run as Veep and for the Senate, win both, resign the Senate seat (or never take the oath); and Kaine could appoint a Senator until a special election.
Sorry. My money’s on Sen. Sherrod Brown (OH). (At 67, Gov. Strickland will be a little too old.)
Kaine doesn’t excite anyone and doesn’t have much to show. Webb, though mellowed, is still considered too mercurial. They need Warner to pick up the Senate seat.
Bentsen was able to run for Veep and Senate at the same time because Lyndon Johnson had gotten the state law changed so he could do it in 1960. Apparently Connecticut law runs the same way, but that’s unusual.
The smartest choice would be Gore: BHO is badly in need of gravitas, and Al would appeal to the Clintonistas (if not the Clintons). It COULD happen: Al wouldn’t mind being the next Cheney.
McCain isn’t going for a woman because there are no plausible female options for him. Condi? A can of worms. Kay Bailey? Texas is in the bag. Liz Dole? Too old.
State law says you cannot hold two lucrative public offices at once, so presumably you can’t run for two at the same time either.
This speculation is certainly a lot of fun.
I think 2008 is a year when having a gov or former gov on the ticket - in this case, a VP pick - may not be as important as in previous cycles.
If clarity counted more than anything, then I think Joe Biden would be a top consideration. Arguably, one of the smartest guys in the Senate. But like a lot of smart guys, his rhetoric can get way too much in front of him. Memories of plagarism (Neil Kinnock’s speeches) would come back to haunt. Plus, I don’t see him comfortably playing the role of #2. One of a couple top picks for Secy. of State (see also Richardson, below).
As much as we would love it, I just don’t see Mark W. being a serious consideration, not this cycle. The calculus favors him more for the strength of a good Senate pickup, which the Dem Senate majority will need to build past a 60-vote majority. This is important, because who knows who Lieberman will caucus with? Every pickup will count.
Bill Richardson? That’s too much ticket change for one election cycle. Think 1960 for historical precedent. I do think he’d be on the short list for Secy. of State. No one else around has the skill he has to deal with ruthless dictators such as Kim Jong-Il, Raoul Castro, Ahmedinijad. Richardson would likely be an excellent choice for State.
Chuck Hagel on the ticket? Not going to happen! But I do see him as the top pick for Defense.
Sherrod Brown? is a maybe. He would help generate votes in Ohio. BTW, I don’t think Ted Strickland would be considered too old.
Kathleen Sebelius and Janet Napolitano are highly-accomplished governors in otherwise bright-red states. They’ve done well. But no one knows them. And not sure they’ve got the experience or temperament to be on the attack the way most VP candidates are intended to be.
Tim Kaine. as popular a choice as he may be isn’t going to happen. If that were to happen, then Bill Bolling becomes the acting governor, and oh think of the problems that would cause… I do think TK becomes a worthy cab secy…Education, Transpo…but only after his gov term is over (2010).
Jim Webb…again, far too-important for the Senate. One day soon, I see him in Senate leadership.
Bob Graham ran for POTUS in 2004. He’s in his early 70s…but very popular in Florida. I wouldn’t count him out. The guy has some quirks; he keeps a diary that - based level of detail - borders on anal-retentiveness. Still, he’s a past-Gov. and past-Sen. and popular. Just a thought…
Sam Nunn has been out of the spotlight far too long. His homestate of Georgia is far-more conservative now than when he was in the Senate. Not sure what benefit he’d bring to the ticket given that he’s not run for anything in a long time.
John Edwards isn’t going to happen, either. I see him in the cabinet as Atty. General, Labor or HHS Secy.
There are other choices. But in the end, and despite HRC’s comments on Friday, I think she remains the top pick and we should not be surprised if she’s the one. She is a tireless campaigner, and outside of BHO, no single candidate has raised as much in donations, nor mobilized so many people. Together, an incredible force of nature.
As VPOTUS, she would break a huge barrier and be one heartbeat away. Will BHO’s supporters bristle at that notion? Certainly, but they’ll have to overcome it. WIll HRC’s supporters accept? As long as HRC shows some grace and tells them that’s what she wants to do…I think it is possible. HRC holds a strong hand in this poker game. VP would remain a phenomenal oppo for her; it would make her the next in line - not only for the presidency - but also the front-runner of a future ticket (be it 4 or 8 years down). She is in good health and she wouldn’t be too old to do it.
What will need to happen is that she’s going to have to cut loose Terry McAuliffe, Howard Wolfson, and the rest. They’ve done her no favors. Nor has the big dog…he forgets sometimes this is not about him. Will he follow the script he’s given? He’d be a major benefit in the Clinton states that went red in 2000 and stayed red in 2004.
“Politics make for strange bed(fellows).”
Net/net - I’d support such a ticket!
Somehow i missed the point. Probably lost in translation
Anyway … nice blog to visit.
cheers, Scapegoating.